the imf's clouds over the global economy
the number of the world's largest meeting of the international finanzszene in bali well organized. but at the beginning of the numerous conferences of the international monetary fund (imf) and the world bank, imf chief economist, the holiday was maurice obstfeld tuesday already the mood: the imf cut its forecast for global economic growth to 2018 or 2019.
the main reasons are: the world of us president donald trump organized trade conflicts, especially the conflict between the united states and china, and the difficulties of many emerging economies by the higher us interest rates and the strong dollar. in july, the fund had for 2018 and 2019, a growth of 3.9 percent predicted. in the traditional oca shortly before the start of the annual meeting of the economic outlook (the world economic outlook, the prognosis for both years reduced to 3.7 percent.
slowdown and problems in europe
"there are clouds," said obstfeld, raised on the holiday island of bali. he made for the slowdown and problems in europe. delicate are, for example, the developments in italy and the brexit. for the united states and china cut the funds to the forecast. in the us, the growth of 2.7 2.5 percent decline in china from 6.4 to 6.2 percent. in europe, the imf expects 2018 only a plus from 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent so far. for germany, the forecast for 2018 has been 2.2 to 1.9 per cent in 2019 of 2.1 also reduced to 1.9 per cent. compared with the prediction of april, this means in 2018, even loss of 0.6 percent. gross domestic product by 20 billion would be reduced. this is mainly caused by a decrease of the orders in industry and a lower volume.
the focus of the annual meeting are only due to the conference centre, the emerging countries. you are the rising interest rates in the united states and the stronger dollar. this weakens the respective currencies and expensive so that operation of the dollar denominated debt. at the same time, it leads to capital outflows, which in turn necessary infrastructure investment difficult. like argentina, turkey, south africa, brazil and indonesia, where the currency rupiah against the dollar has lost.
a new emerging market crisis
federal vice president claudia book had before their departure to the higher risks for still robust growth. there is a danger that the risks were underestimated. it warns book about reforms to the financial sector should be watered down or even reverse. above all, the private sector must have sufficient buffer. public funds are only a second line of defense, "says the book. but the imf financial „komfortabel "equipped and is prepared for the crisis. just before the meeting, the fund had argentina with 57 billion dollars, the highest beistandskredit ever granted.
imf chief economist. but this is not a new emerging market crisis. the member states are now much more resilient than in the past. and in all the countries is, according to the chief competition economist worse. he drew attention to some countries in latin america and in africa, in which the economy good develop. "we currently see a mixed picture.
"indonesia is a success story."
specifically, he praised the host of the annual meeting: „indonesien is a success story. " the country can, according to the imf the recent natural disasters in bali island of lombok, sulawesi to tackle alone. imf director christine lagarde had visited the earthquake zone on monday, lombok and the affected and the government of the country expressed its sympathy. the imf was thinking how he could help the country at this stage. a loan was not an option, the indonesian economy doesn't need it, "said lagarde. also a rejection of the meeting in bali because of the earthquake and the tsunami was not an option. that would make all the efforts of the country in the last three years have been destroyed and wasted resources. and indonesia could have an important opportunity to the world as a successful economy to present, lagarde says.(徳囯ASK电容器)